Rates move fast — and guessing wrong could cost you.

This one’s tricky, no doubt about it. Timing your rate lock is one of the most stressful — and most misunderstood — parts of the mortgage process. And it can cost you big if you get it wrong.

Here’s the truth: Nobody has a crystal ball.
Not you. Not your agent. Not even your loan officer (though the good ones can usually read the market better than most).

Mortgage rates fluctuate constantly. They’re tied to a mix of economic data, Federal Reserve policy, inflation numbers, bond market swings, geopolitical events — and sometimes just good old-fashioned panic or speculation. They can change daily, and sometimes even several times in one day.

So… when should you lock?

Here’s a simple rule of thumb:

If the rate you’re being offered is something you’re comfortable with — something that fits your budget and allows you to comfortably afford the home — and you’re happy with the terms… then lock it.

Locking protects you if rates go up. That’s the point. It’s insurance.

It costs a little money (usually baked into your closing costs or the interest rate itself), but it gives you peace of mind. You’ll know exactly what your mortgage payment is going to be — no surprises. And in an uncertain market, that’s worth a lot.

But what if rates go down after you lock?

Unfortunately, that’s always the gamble. And yes, it does happen. That’s what makes this a tough decision. If you lock and rates fall, you don’t get the lower rate — unless your lender offers something called a “float-down” option, which lets you take advantage of a lower rate after locking in, if it drops by a certain amount (usually at a cost or under specific conditions).

Not all lenders offer that, and it usually comes with an added fee, so it’s something to ask about before you lock.

What if you wait to lock — and rates go up?

This is the bigger risk — and the one that stings the most. If you “let it float” and rates jump, your monthly payment could increase by hundreds of dollars, depending on your loan amount. That could affect your debt-to-income ratio, your ability to qualify, and whether you can even afford the home.

We’ve seen deals fall apart over just a 0.5% rate increase. So it’s not something to take lightly.

Here’s how to make a smarter decision:

• Talk to your loan officer. A good one will give you honest insight into current rate trends.
• Watch the markets. Keep an eye on financial news, inflation reports, and Fed statements — they all impact rates.
• Ask about float-down options. If you’re leaning toward locking, it’s good to know if you can take advantage of drops later.
• Know your comfort zone. If the rate you’re seeing today works for your budget and you’d be upset if it went up — just lock it.
• Don’t chase perfection. Rates go up and down. You’re never going to time it perfectly, and that’s okay. The goal is to get a good rate you’re happy with, not beat the market.

At House Karma, we’re here to guide you — not pressure you.

We’re not lenders. We don’t benefit from whether you lock or float. What we do care about is helping you make informed, confident choices — ones that protect you and keep you from getting hurt later.

We’ll help you:

• Understand how rate locks work
• Ask the right questions
• Spot risky advice
• Compare options fairly

Final Word:

There’s no “perfect time” to lock.
But there is a smart way to do it — and that’s with research, good advice, and your eyes wide open.

If the rate fits your plan and your payment feels right, then don’t overthink it. Lock it, protect it, and focus on your future in your new home.